![]() ![]() ![]() We find that the lockdown, if implemented correctly, has a high chance of reducing the total number of COVID-19 infected cases in the short-term, and buy India invaluable time to prepare its healthcare and disease monitoring system. We compare effects of hypothetical durations of the lockdown on reducing the number of active and new infections. In this paper, we use a Bayesian extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (eSIR) model designed for intervention forecasting to study the short- and long-term impact of an initial 21-day lockdown on the total number of COVID-19 infections in India compared to other less severe nonpharmaceutical interventions. The lockdown was again extended to May 18 while this paper was being revised. The lockdown was further extended to May 3rd, soon after the analysis of this paper was completed. With only 536 COVID-19 cases and 11 fatalities, India-a democracy of 1.34 billion people-took the historic decision of a 21-day national lockdown on March 25. India has taken strong and early public health measures for arresting the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. ![]()
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